Karabakh 2014
Azerbaijani author Tabib Huseynov (right) argued the merits of his 2014 scenario paper to an audience that included former US Karabakh negotiator Carey Cavanaugh (middle) at the IISS in London, July 2009
Our Karabakh 2014 project tries to stimulate discussion about where this conflict is heading and where the best hopes for a peaceful resolution lie.
Conciliation Resources commissioned papers from three Armenian and three Azerbaijani analysts, asking them to depict scenarios for how the conflict might look in 2014. They presented these at a seminar at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London on July 10, 2009, with former US Karabakh negotiator Carey Cavanaugh leading a discussion in the final session.
We have now published updated versions of these papers in a publication in English and Russian, and will hold roundtable discussions in the region in October. The project is funded by the UK Conflict Prevention Pool through the Consortium Initiative. For more information please contact Tom de Waal and Laurence Broers
Karabakh 2014 Scenario Papers (September 2009)
Shain Abbasov is the deputy chief of party at the IREX/USAID Media Advancement Project in Azerbaijan. He is also a partner in S&A Partnership Ltd, Baku-based privately owned consulting company. Shain is also a correspondent of Eurasianet (www.eurasianet.org). He has a master’s degree from Azerbaijan’s State Oil Academy. In 2003-2004 Shain Abbasov was Reagan-Fascell Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington, DC. In 2008 he was Drapper-Hills Fellow of the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. Prior to that he spent more than 10 years as a print journalist in Azerbaijan. He was deputy editor-in-chief at Echo and Zerkalo daily newspapers in Baku. Download his paper [English pdf][Рyccкий]
“In the next five years the regime in Azerbaijan is likely to have sufficient administrative, financial and information resources to implement a compromise scenario of conflict resolution, without any trouble for itself.”
Karen Bekaryan has a doctorate in mathematics from Yerevan State University. He worked as a lecturer in political science, European integration and analysis for seven years and has been an expert for the Foreign Relations Committee of the Armenian parliament since 1999. Karen has been the chairman of the NGO European Integration since 2002 and director of Armedia Information Analytical Agency since 2006 and a member of the Public Council of Republic of Armenia since 2009. He has authored about 100 articles on European issues, political issues, foreign relations and other topics. Download his paper [English pdf][Рyccкий]
“Irrespective of NK's political status, a comprehensive engagement with civil society and administration of the NKR should be undertaken as from today. The earliest possible return of the NKR to the negotiating format could make the resolution process more realistic and productive.”
Tabib Huseynov is an analyst with the International Crisis Group, a global conflict prevention and resolution think-tank, where he conducts research and drafts reports on political and conflict issues in Azerbaijan and wider Caucasus region. From Shusha in Nagorny Karabakh, he regularly takes part in dialogue and academic meetings about the Karabakh conflict and the Caucasus region and has written various independent publications, including a monograph ’Resolving Ethno-territorial Conflicts: a case for mountainous Karabakh‘ (Berlin, 2008). He holds an MA in International Relations and European Studies from the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. The views expressed in Tabib’s Karabakh 2014 paper are his own. Download his paper [English pdf][Рyccкий]
“A consensus-based plebiscite scenario is apparently the best possible option for a peaceful and speedy solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, it will be hard to convince the parties of this option as long as they think in zero-sum categories.”
Manvel Sarkisyan comes from Hadrut in Nagorny Karabakh. He trained as an architect in the Baku Engineering-Construction Institute and practiced architecture in Stepanakert. After serving in the Soviet army, he spent six years as a specialist on architectural history in Armenia’s Department for the Protection of Cultural Monuments. In 1988 he was one of the first members of the Armenian Karabakh movement. In 1992 he was appointed permanent representative of Nagorny Karabakh in Armenia and in 1993 was made an adviser to the foreign minister of Nagorny Karabakh. In 1995 he worked as an expert on international relations in the Armenian Centre for Strategic and National Studies. In 2000-05 he was aide on political issues to the president of the Nagorny Karabakh Republic. Since then he has worked as an expert for the Caucasus Centre and the Armenian Centre for Strategic and National Studies. In 1992-5 he took part in many rounds of negotiations on the Karabakh conflict. [The terminology used here is the author's choice, not Conciliation Resources.] Download his paper [English pdf][Рyccкий]
“The fact is that some territories previously categorized as ‘unrecognized entities’ have moved on to the category of ‘semi-recognized states'. This has led to changes in the state of international security and stability. And the ‘culprits’ are the major powers themselves.”
Rashad Shirinov studied International Relations at Baku State University and then did an MA in Political Science and International Relations at Bosphorus University in Istanbul. In 2007 he was FCO Senior Chevening Fellow at the University of York, UK. In 2007-2008 he visited Monterey Institute of International Studies to earn a certificate in WMD non-proliferation. He has worked for the OSCE and IFES in Baku and is currently employed as political party program officer with the US National Democratic Institute for International Affairs in Azerbaijan. Download his paper [English pdf][Рyccкий]
“The autonomy of Karabakh would require more respect, discussion and compromise on behalf of the Azerbaijani government. This would be a test for the Azerbaijani ruling elite as it has little culture of political power-sharing.”
Mikael Zolyan is a political scientist and historian from Yerevan. He studied in Yerevan State University and the Central European University in Budapest. In 2005 he received a doctorate in history from the Ethnology Faculty at Yerevan State University. In 2008 he studied at UCLA. His main interests include the study of nationality, ethnicity and ethno-political conflicts and in particular issues about the relationship of historical memory and national identity. Download his paper [English pdf][Рyccкий]
“Any solution, which is worked out by the major powers and imposed on parties to the conflict, is not only unsustainable but represents a potential time-bomb. The ‘geopolitical paradigm’ ignores the importance of developments within the local societies.”
