The missing link: a simulation exercise

Organisational Proceedures
The exercise will be continuous from the start for 2 hours. As a participant you should stay in your assigned role until the end of the exercise and only relate to other participants within that role. You can take coffee and tea at your own convenience, but still stay in your role.

Operational base
Each participant or group of participants will have their own area that is their office/operational base. Other participants can only enter that area by invitation. Messages and letters may be sent to you at your base, so if you are away at meetings or for other reasons, please check regularly to make sure you have not overlooked any important messages.

Organising meetings
Within the constraints of your roles, you can organise meetings with other participants when and in what circumstances are acceptable to you and the others involved.

To organise a meeting you should send a letter in writing through the post office stating a time and place and any other conditions that are appropriate. You must then wait for a reply. Your personal instructions may indicate one or two other participants whom you can approach directly for a meeting.

Press releases or public statements
You may wish to make a public statement restating your position or perhaps indicating a change in policy. You may also want to inform the public of any other action that you take. These should also be left at the post office that will distribute them to all other parties unless you indicate that one or other party should not receive them directly.

Observers
Members of the group will be observing the simulation and may visit your base or attend meetings. Please ignore them. They have been instructed not to speak to you!

Questions and help
As far as possible use your own initiative and do what seems appropriate. But if you do need help to understand the exercise, contact the post office or the postal staff who may be able to help.

BACKGROUND

In May 1998 most of the main political parties in Northern Ireland accepted the Belfast Agreement. It included provisions for establishing new structures of government, for the release of politically motivated prisoners and for the decommissioning of weapons. An Independent International Commission on Decommissioning has been established to oversee this process with a Canadian as its chairperson.

The Agreement was ratified by the electorate at a referendum. Almost all the Catholic population supported the Agreement but only about half of the Protestant population are in favour and the second biggest unionist party has expressed its opposition, though it has taken part in the institutions set up under the Agreement.

Now almost two years later all the institutions are functioning with participation by all sections of the community but the Council of the Ulster Unionist Party only allowed its members to participate if a start had been made to decommissioning weapons by 45 minutes from now. No decommissioning has taken place and the main republican paramilitary organisation has only recently been willing to talk to the Decommissioning Commission. It seems unlikely that they will decommission before the deadline and it seems certain that the Unionist leader, who is also First Minister of the new local administration, will have no alternative to resigning. The only other possibility is that the British Government, which is still the ultimate authority in Northern Ireland, could suspend the institutions. It is not clear what the effect of any of these options will be. They are likely to leave a vacuum and create tension between the different parties involved.

Prepare for the deadline, exploring options with others as appropriate and take what action you think will be helpful. When the deadline is reached the exercise does not end. Whatever happens at or before the deadline, continue to explore options and take action in the light of the new circumstances.

Your strategy may be designed to:

• persuade others to accept your position;
• bring the conflict more sharply into focus;
• reframe the problem or look at the problem in a new way which makes it easier to find a mutually acceptable approach;
• wait and hope others will shift their positions.

PARTIES AND THEIR STATED POSITIONS

Ulster Unionist Party
The leadership is in favour of making the agreement work and holds positions within the new administration. In fact the party leader is First Minister. However a substantial section of the party’s ruling body (perhaps half) are against the Agreement, partly because of the failure of the IRA to decommission but also because they feel the whole Agreement brings the possibility of a United Ireland closer and is not in their interests.

Sinn Féin
It is closely linked with the IRA and therefore its participation in the institutions is partly put at risk by the absence of IRA movement on decommissioning. It states that decommissioning will come when the IRA is confident in the willingness of other parties (i.e. unionists and the British Government) to make the new institutions work and therefore pressurising them to decommission is the worst way to get results. Pressure also creates tension between them and their grassroots who begin to question the value of the peace process.

Irish Republican Army
It is a shadowy organisation, which makes few public announcement and so its position is not very clear. However it is believed that many of its rank and file members are not willing to give up weapons and would make it impossible for the leadership to decommission even if they want to. It feels it has stated and demonstrated its support for the Agreement by its cease-fire. It is more concerned with the continuing British military presence in those communities where it is strongest and wants some movement in troop withdrawals.

British Government
They want the institutions to work and for peace to be achieved. They are prepared to suspend the institutions to avoid the leader of the Unionist Party having to bow to the wishes of his Party and bring down the institutions. They also believe it will weaken his position and he might be replaced by someone more intransigent.

Independent International Commission on Decommissioning
The Commission considers itself to be at the service of the parties willing to do whatever it can to facilitate the decommissioning process. Its chairman and other members are respected by all parties and are considered to be impartial. It has so far not been inclined to take direct initiatives to try to bring about a resolution of the problem.

Note
There are a number of other bodies, which could have a significant role in the resolution of the situation, but they have not been included for the sake of simplicity. They include the Irish Government and the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party: Both are strongly in favour of the Agreement and want it to work. They are in favour of decommissioning and try to persuade the republican movement to make some gesture to satisfy unionist opinion. However they do not see decommissioning as such an important matter and do not want it to cause the breakdown of the Agreement. They do not want the institutions suspended because they feel it will be hard to get it restarted again and it will polarise the situation.

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