Chronology
1918 | 1922 | 1945 | 1960 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000
Ancient and medieval history
In pre-modern times the territory including today’s Karabakh is thought to have been part of the kingdom of the Caucasian Albanians, a now extinct ethnic group that had converted to Christianity in the fourth century and was partially Armenianized. Waves of eleventh century Seljuk invasion contributed to the Islamization of lowland areas in the early mediaeval period, resulting in a mixed population, some sedentary, some nomadic, with a mixed system of rule by Muslim khans and Armenian meliks (princes). During the period of early medieval Armenian statehood, the territory was known to Armenians as the province of Artsakh. Overall sovereignty in the early modern period was exercised by the Persian empire (Iran). Nineteenth century
Karabakh is formally incorporated into the Russian Empire by the Treaty of Gulistan in 1813. In 1868 it becomes part of the Elizavetpol province of the Russian Empire.
1905
Armeno-Azerbaijani violence erupts in the Karabakh town of Shusha.
1915
Large-scale deportations and massacres of Armenians occur in Anatolia (now recognized by several countries as the Armenian Genocide).
1918
As the Russian Empire collapses in the wake of the Bolshevik-led revolution, massacres of Azerbaijanis (in March) and Armenians (in September) take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan each declare their independence on 28 May. The new regimes quarrel over their common borders, especially regarding Nakhichevan, Zangezur and Karabakh.
1920-21
The Azerbaijani army sacks Shusha in March 1920 in response to an Armenian rebellion. On 28 April, the Bolshevik Red Army takes Baku and deposes the Azerbaijani government, then takes Karabakh in May and Armenia in November. On 1 December, Nakhichevan, Zangezur and Karabakh are declared part of Soviet Armenia by the Azerbaijani Communist leader Nariman Narimanov. His statement is soon retracted – whether it had been a ploy to advance the Red Army’s progress into Armenia or the result of duress is unclear.
In the ensuing months, Nakhichevan comes under Azerbaijani control and Zangezur under Armenian control, initiating long-term processes in each region of corresponding demographic homogenization. In July 1921 the Caucasian Bureau of the Russian Communist party (Kavburo) resolves to attach Karabakh to Armenia, then almost immediately reverses the decision, attaching it to Azerbaijan with ‘wide regional autonomy’.
The Soviet Union is formed; Armenia and Azerbaijan are incorporated together with Georgia as part of the Transcaucasian Federative Republic.
1923
On 7 July the Nagorny Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) is established as an autonomous region within Azerbaijan. Its borders are drawn a month later.
1936
The Transcaucasian Federative Republic is dissolved and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia become union republics.
The First Secretary of the Armenian Communist party Grigoriy Arutinov writes to Stalin in November asking for Karabakh to be transferred to Armenia.
1948-50
A further period of demographic homogenization takes place in Armenia, as Azerbaijanis are deported and immigrants settle from the diaspora.
During the 1960s an ongoing affirmation of Armenian national identity coalesces around the themes of the 1915 genocide, national themes in literature and art, and Karabakh. In 1963, a petition protesting against the cultural and economic marginalization of Armenians in Karabakh with 2,500 signatures is sent to Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.
1977
Karabakh Armenians demonstrate in Karabakh for attachment to Armenia.
A petition for Karabakh’s unification with Armenia with tens of thousands of signatures is sent from Karabakh and Armenia to Moscow in August.
In October, former First Secretary of the Azerbaijani Communist Party Heydar Aliyev is removed from the Politburo, and speaking in Paris in November Abel Aganbekian, one of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s advisers, suggests Moscow might view Karabakh’s unification with Armenia sympathetically. Demonstrations take place in the Armenian capital Yerevan protesting the treatment of Armenians in the area north of Karabakh, and intercommunal violence breaks out in Kafan, Armenia, in November.
1988
January
The first forced population movements of the emerging conflict take place as Azerbaijanis flee Kafan.
February
Demonstrations begin in Stepanakert in mid-February, echoed by mass demonstrations in Yerevan, followed by the local Soviet of Peoples’ Deputies’ resolution requesting transfer to Armenia. Karabakh party leader Boris Kevorkov is removed from his post.
On 27-29 February anti-Armenian pogroms take place in Sumgait, Azerbaijan, killing up to 32 people according to official sources. Almost all of the town’s Armenian population leaves.
May-July
The First Secretaries in both republics are replaced in May and a ‘war of laws’ begins in June: while the Armenian Supreme Soviet affirms the transfer of Karabakh to Armenia, the Azerbaijani Supreme Soviet affirms its status within Azerbaijan. The latter position is confirmed in July by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. Party official Arkady Volsky is sent to the region as the Representative of the Central Committee of the Supreme Soviet.
September-November
Population movements within Karabakh increase as Armenians are driven out of Shusha and Azerbaijanis out of Stepanakert. In September ‘special administration’ (direct rule from Moscow) is introduced to Karabakh. In November, Azerbaijanis are expelled en masse from Armenia, leading to mass demonstrations in Baku.
December
On 7 December Armenia is struck by an earthquake, killing 25,000 people.
The Karabakh Committee, the eleven-man leadership of the Armenian opposition movement, is arrested (they are released six months later without charge).
1989
This year sees a fragmentation of the bodies claiming sovereignty over Karabakh. On 12 January Volsky establishes a Special Administration Committee for Karabakh; in Karabakh, a 79-person National Council is elected in August declaring it will only cooperate with Volsky’s committee on its own terms. In September Azerbaijan’s Supreme Soviet passes a declaration of sovereignty over Karabakh, and direct rule nominally returns to Baku in November. In December the Karabakh National Council passes a joint resolution with the Supreme Soviet of Armenia declaring Nagorny Karabakh’s unification with the Armenian SSR.
In Azerbaijan’s ‘Black January’, anti-Armenian pogroms take place in Baku on 13-15 January, killing about 90 and forcing virtually all Armenians to flee the city, and a state of emergency is imposed in Karabakh and the border regions. The state of emergency is declared in Baku from midnight of 19-20 January, when Soviet tanks and troops enter and are met by nationalist protestors, resulting in some 150 civilian deaths. Ayaz Mutalibov becomes party leader in Azerbaijan. Second Secretary Viktor Polyanichko goes to Karabakh to set up a new organizational Committee as Volsky’s team departs.
In May the Armenian National Movement is swept to power in elections for the Supreme Soviet of Armenia. The Karabakh Committee’s Levon Ter-Petrosian is elected Speaker in August, and on the 23rd a declaration is passed stating Armenia is heading towards independence.
1991
March
On 17 March Azerbaijan takes part in the referendum on the preservation of the Soviet Union. Armenia does not participate in the vote.
April-July
‘Operation Ring’ begins in April as part of the plan devised in Baku and Moscow to ‘disarm illegal armed formations’ in Karabakh. Soviet troops, Azeri police and special forces units initiate attacks on Armenian villages surrounding Karabakh to the north. Operation Ring continues through July.
August-September
In the aftermath of an attempted coup against Gorbachev in Moscow, Azerbaijan declares independence on 30 August. Mutalibov is elected president of Azerbaijan on 8 September. Aliyev is elected speaker of the parliament of the Autonomous Republic of Nakhichevan on 3 September.
Karabakh announces its secession from Azerbaijan on 2 September, proclaiming itself the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Armenia declares independence on 23 September, as a joint Kazakh-Russian peace plan for Karabakh is signed in Zheleznovodsk, Russia.
October-November
Ter-Petrosian is elected president of Armenia. The Zheleznovodsk peace plan is abandoned after an Azerbaijani helicopter carrying high-ranking Azerbaijani, Russian and Kazakh military personnel crashes over Karabakh on 20 November. Azerbaijan’s new National Council votes to revoke Nagorny Karabakh’s autonomous status and declare it an ordinary province.
December
On 10 December Karabakh Armenians vote in favour of independence in a referendum. The Soviet Union collapses on 31 December.
1992
January
On 6 January Nagorny Karabakh declares itself independent, but is not recognized by any state, including Armenia; Artur Mkrtchian becomes its first leader as Chairman of its Supreme Soviet (but is killed in mysterious circumstances in April). On 30 January Armenia and Azerbaijan are admitted to the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), which assumes responsibility as mediator for the conflict.
February
On 25-26 February hundreds of Azerbaijanis are massacred in the Karabakh village of Khojaly, leading to President Mutalibov’s resignation on 6 March.
March The Minsk Group is formed at a CSCE conference on Karabakh in Minsk.
May
As Ter-Petrossian and acting Azerbaijani leader Yaqub Mamedov meet in Tehran, signing a communiqué on the general principles of a peace agreement, Armenian forces capture Shusha on 8-9 May.
Mutalibov is temporarily restored to power in Azerbaijan by former Communist deputies on 14-15 May, before being forcibly removed. Armenian forces capture Lachin on 18 May, creating a land link between Nagorny Karabakh and Armenia.
June-July
On 7 June the Popular Front’s Abulfaz Elchibey is elected president of Azerbaijan. As Minsk Group negotiations open in Rome on 1 June, they are rapidly overtaken by the recapture of Shaumian region by an Azerbaijani offensive on 12 June, followed by Mardakert (renamed Agdere) in northern Karabakh on 4 July.
August
A new State Defence Committee is established as Nagorny Karabakh’s executive body, with Robert Kocharian as its head.
October
On 24 October the United States Congress passes Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act prohibiting US government aid to Azerbaijan.
1993
February-April
Against a backdrop of lacklustre military performance, Suret Huseynov is sacked as Azerbaijan’s ‘special representative’ on Karabakh. Between 27 March and 5 April Armenian forces capture Kelbajar (Azerbaijani territory situated between Karabakh and Armenia), which becomes the subject of UN Resolution 822 (30 April) calling for Armenian withdrawal.
June-August
On 4 June Huseynov initiates an uprising in Ganja against President Elchibey. On 15 June Aliyev becomes speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament, and Elchibey flees the capital three days later. Aliyev is granted extraordinary presidential powers on 24 June, which he uses to appoint Huseynov as prime minister. This political upheaval in Azerbaijan fuels a number of catastrophic military defeats resulting in the fall of Mardakert in June, Aghdam in July, and Fizuli, Jebrail and Gubatly in August. These become the subject of UN Resolution 853 (29 July), calling for Armenian withdrawal.
September-December
In Moscow to seal Azerbaijan’s accession to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Aliyev meets Karabakh Armenian leader Kocharian in secret. On 3 October Aliyev is elected president of Azerbaijan, but at the end of the month Armenian forces again capture more territories: the town of Goradiz and the district of Zengelan. UN Resolution 874 (14 October) stipulates a timetable for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories. UN Resolution 884 (12 November) condemns the occupation of Goradiz and Zengelan. The year ends with a renewed Azerbaijani offensive.
1994
January-February
Both Azerbaijani and Armenian forces suffer heavy losses in fierce fighting from late January to mid-February.
May
At talks attended by Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh representatives, the CIS (dominated by Russia) and hosts Kyrgyzstan, the Bishkek Protocol is signed and a ceasefire begins on 12 May.
September-October
Azerbaijan signs a contract to develop its offshore Azeri-Shirag-Gunashli oil fields with foreign companies on 20 September. Huseynov flees Azerbaijan as the suspected organizer of an alleged failed coup on 3-4 October.
November-December
In the third round of talks since the ceasefire, Azerbaijan makes new demands for the inclusion of Karabakhi Azeris in the process and insists on a CSCE-mediated peace process. At the CSCE summit in Budapest, in which the CSCE becomes the OSCE, Russia and Sweden become co-chairs of the Minsk Group. The High Level Planning Group of the OSCE is formed 20 December. Robert Kocharian is voted de facto president of Nagorny Karabakh by parliament on 22 December.
1995
March
A coup attempt led by Deputy Minister of the Interior Colonel Rovshan Javadov fails in Baku 13-17 March.
April
Finland replaces Sweden as co-chair of the Minsk Group.
May-June
A new round of negotiations in Moscow in mid-May fails, with Azerbaijan insisting that representatives of both Armenian and Azerbaijani communities from Nagorny Karabakh be included as armed – but not political – actors.
1996
January-March
Talks in Moscow fail to make substantial progress, as the sides reject new proposals by the OSCE, Russia and the US.
September
Ter-Petrosian wins the disputed Armenian presidential elections with 51 per cent of the vote on 23 September. A state of emergency is declared after election protests.
November
Kocharian is elected de facto president of Nagorny Karabakh by popular vote on the 24th.
December
At the OSCE’s Lisbon Summit, the chair-in-office issues a statement on the principles of resolution that support Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Armenia prevents them being part of the final communiqué: they are instead included as an annex, with Armenia’s response recorded in a second annex.
1997
January-February
On 1 January France succeeds Finland as co-chair of the Minsk Group. In response to Azerbaijani displeasure, the US is admitted as a third co-chair on 14 February.
March
Kocharian becomes prime minister of Armenia.
May
The Minsk Group presents a new peace proposal.
June-July
Minsk co-chairs discuss the latest proposals with leaders in Armenia and Azerbaijan, who eventually accept the proposal in principle as a basis for peace, Armenia with “serious reservations”. A modified ‘package’ proposal is worked on by Minsk Group co-chairs after meetings with Aliyev in Baku in July. In late July, Aliyev visits the US, signing treaties on investment with President Bill Clinton. Revealing the confidential peace proposals, Aliyev announces that Azerbaijan would agree to a staged withdrawal from the occupied territories, leaving Lachin under Nagorny Karabakh’s control at the first stage.
August
On 25 August Nagorny Karabakh rejects the peace plan submitted in late May.
September
Arkady Ghukasian wins Nagorny Karabakh’s presidential elections (condemned by Azerbaijan and Russia). In the wake of the failure of the latest efforts, a modified ‘step-by-step’ peace proposal is presented by the Minsk Group. Ter-Petrosian endorses the new approach and comments publicly on need for compromise. His move opens divisions within his own government and sparks a number of opposition demonstrations.
October-November
Armenia and Azerbaijan accept the latest OSCE peace plans as a basis for further negotiations with some reservations. Nagorny Karabakh rejects them, demanding a package approach, citing security concerns with the step-by-step proposal. Ghukasian says a “confederative relationship” with Azerbaijan could be discussed, but not proposals that subordinate the region to Baku.
December
At an OSCE meeting in Copenhagen, no breakthrough is announced and requests by Nagorny Karabakh to be incorporated as a third party are rejected. A step-by-step proposal is discussed and rejected. No new OSCE documents are produced as Armenia blocks a re-iteration of the 1996 Lisbon principles.
1998
January-February
At a meeting of Armenia’s National Security Council, powerful figures including Kocharian, Vazgen Sarkisian and Serzh Sarkisian (not related) side against Ter-Petrosian in rejecting the Minsk Group proposal. Ter-Petrosian resigns on 3 February.
March
In Armenian presidential elections, Kocharian wins in the second round in a poll criticized by international observers.
October
Aliyev is re-elected president of Azerbaijan.
November
A Minsk Group ‘common state’ proposal is rejected by Azerbaijan.
1999
April
Aliyev and Kocharian attend the 50th anniversary summit of NATO in Washington. It is their first meeting since 1993 but is the first of many meetings over the next two years.
May-June
The ‘Unity’ bloc, consisting of Vazgen Sarkisian’s Republican Party and Karen Demirchian’s People’s Party of Armenia wins parliamentary elections in Armenia in May. Sarkisian is appointed prime minister on 11 June.
October
Aliyev and Kocharian meet on the Nakhichevan-Armenia border. A revival of the so-called ‘Goble Plan’ for territorial exchange is discussed, provoking resignations among Aliyev’s senior officials. It is highly controversial in Armenia as well.
On 27 October gunmen storm a session of the Armenian National Assembly and kill eight high officials comprising the core of the new political elite, including Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and Speaker Karen Demirchian.
December
Prominent wartime commander Samvel Babayan is sacked as chief of the Nagorny Karabakh armed forces. On 29 December President Aliyev issues a decree establishing a state oil fund in Azerbaijan.
March
Ghukasian is seriously wounded in an assassination attempt in Stepanakert; Babayan is arrested in its aftermath.
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian admits Armenia’s internal troubles following the October massacre have almost “closed down” talks on Nagorny Karabakh.
June
Nagorny Karabakh holds unrecognized parliamentary elections.
September
Kocharian and Aliyev meet at the UN Millennium Summit in New York, reaffirming the importance of the dialogue begun in 1999.
2001
January-March
Azerbaijan and Armenia become full members of the Council of Europe. Aliyev and Kocharian meet in Paris in January and again on 4-5 March. Former OSCE peace plans are leaked to the Armenian and Azerbaijani media in February.
April-July
Peace talks are held in Key West, Florida, which many believe were based on principles established in Paris in March. Despite both presidents’ public optimism, over the following weeks the still confidential proposals encounter serious opposition within the Azerbaijani political elite and little encouragement in Armenia.
September-November
Following a slowdown in the peace process since April, Minsk co-chairs visit Yerevan and Baku but are unable to secure sufficient support for an allegedly amended version of the broad agreement discussed at Key West. Contrary to expectations, Aliyev and Kocharian do not meet for one-on-one talks at the CIS Summit on 30 November.
2002
January-March
President George W. Bush of the United States lifts Amendment 907 of the Freedom Support Act restricting American aid to Azerbaijan, in reward for Azerbaijan’s cooperation in the ‘war on terror’. Minsk co-chairs visit Baku and Yerevan to discuss “new ideas to reinvigorate and energize the peace process”.
May-August
Armenian and Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Ministers meet in Prague in Minsk Group-mediated discussions. On 12 August Ghukasian is re-elected de facto president of Nagorny Karabakh. On 24 August a national referendum in Azerbaijan approves significant amendments to the Constitution, including the transfer of power in case of the president’s incapacitation to the prime minister and not parliamentary speaker, with a 97 per cent approval rate.
September
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev criticizes the UN Security Council for failing to seek Armenian compliance with its resolutions of 1993.
Construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline begins.
2003
January
The Secretary-General of the Council of Europe, Walter Schwimmer, criticizes President Kocharian for a speech suggesting that Armenians and Azerbaijanis are “ethnically incompatible” and cannot live in the same state.
February
In the first round of voting in the Armenian presidential election, more than 250 opposition activists, supporters and observers are detained.
March
Kocharian is re-elected in the Armenian presidential election run-off with 60 per cent of the vote.
April
The Armenian Constitutional Court rules that the presidential election result should stand, but that government should hold referendum of confidence in Kocharian within one year. Kocharian rejects this. On 21 April Aliyev collapses twice during an official ceremony being broadcast live on television.
May
In parliamentary elections in Armenia, a pro-presidential coalition of the Republican Party, Armenian Revolutionary Federation and Orinats Yerkir parties is elected.
July-August
Defence Ministers Serzh Sarkisian and Safar Abiyev agree on 8 July to ease the tension between the two countries’ armed forces after meeting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. On 9 July Aliyev is taken to hospital in Turkey; in August he is transferred to Cleveland, USA. On 4 August the Azerbaijani parliament approves Aliyev’s son Ilham’s appointment as prime minister.
October
In presidential elections in Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev wins in the first round; public disorder and clashes between security forces and protesters ensue. The international community is largely uncritical, with the exception of Norway, although part of the OSCE observer mission dissociates itself from the OSCE Preliminary Statement on the elections as being too mild.
December
The group accused of the October 1999 Armenian parliament shootings is sentenced after a three-year hearing.
Heydar Aliyev’s death is announced on 12 December.
2004
January
Ilham Aliyev declares in Paris that Azerbaijan will never accept Karabakh’s independence or integration with Armenia. Oskanian dismisses an Azerbaijani offer to lift Armenia’s economic blockade in exchange for the return of Armenian-controlled Azerbaijani territories around Nagorny Karabakh.
February
Armenian army officer Lieutenant Gurgen Markarian, attending a NATO training course in Hungary, is hacked to death with an axe by an Azerbaijani officer.
The European Parliament refuses to back its chief South Caucasus rapporteur Per Gahrton’s calls for the return of Armenian-controlled territories adjacent to Nagorny Karabakh in exchange for the lifting of Azerbaijan’s economic blockade of Armenia.
March
The deadline for a referendum of confidence in Kocharian approaches and passes amid rising opposition.
April
The opposition protests in Yerevan against Kocharian and the failure to hold a referendum. Demonstrators are dispersed by force during the night of 13 April, and party offices of Republican Party, National Unity Party and People’s Party are raided.
Beginning a regular cycle of meetings known as the ‘Prague Process’, new Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov meets his Armenian counterpart Oskanian in Prague on 16 April.
May
The European Union announces intentions to increase its role in the South Caucasus, incorporating Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia within its ‘European Neighbourhood Policy’.
July
In a press conference in Yerevan, the Minsk Group mediators announce they will not bring any new proposals for the conflicting sides, saying that Armenia and Azerbaijan bear the responsibility for reaching agreements and settlement.
August
In unrecognized local elections in Nagorny Karabakh the opposition Movement-88 party scores a major success by winning the vote for the Stepanakert mayoralty.
September
The eleventh anniversary of the ceasefire is met with a worsening situation on the line of contact, as each side accuses the other of violations. Presidents Aliyev, Kocharian and Putin meet in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 15 September. They reportedly moot a new idea – Armenian withdrawal from the occupied districts in return for two referenda: one in Karabakh and one in Azerbaijan as a whole. NATO cancels planned manoeuvres in Azerbaijan when Armenian military personnel are refused visas.
Babayan is released from jail and granted a partial amnesty.
October-November
The Council of Europe’s PACE adopts a resolution critical of Armenia’s democratic record. Azerbaijan urges the United Nations General Assembly to acknowledge Armenian settlement of the occupied territories.
December
The Armenian Revolutionary Federation withdraws its support from President Ghukasian in protest against the sacking of its only cabinet minister, Armen Sarkisian.
2005
January
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopts a resolution criticizing Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory and containing references to ethnic cleansing.
February
OSCE officials make their first inspection of Armenian-controlled Azerbaijani territories. They conclude that there is no significant involvement of Armenia in ongoing settlement processes in the occupied territories, while they observe some direct involvement of the Nagorny Karabakh authorities, above all in Lachin and a limited area east of Mardakert.
April
Oskanian and Mammadyarov meet separately with the Minsk Group co-chairs in London.
Ceasefire violations along the line of contact escalate.
May
Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian meet at the Council of Europe summit in Warsaw, reportedly discussing Armenian withdrawal from the occupied territories and approving further meetings between the foreign ministers.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is opened in Baku.
June
Oskanian and Mammadyarov meet in Paris. Oskanian tells the media that “common ground is in sight”. On 14 June a statement issued by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs supports international calls for intercommunal contacts between Karabakh Armenians and Karabakh Azeris.
Political parties loyal to President Ghukasian win a surprise landslide victory in Nagorny Karabakh’s parliamentary elections, winning nearly two-thirds of the vote.
July
Anonymous Armenian sources suggest that agreement with Azerbaijan on the possible use of a referendum to determine Karabakh’s future status is close. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly denies this.
August
Azerbaijan’s military prosecutor reopens a criminal investigation of the killings at Khojaly in 1992.
Amid rising tensions surrounding the forthcoming parliamentary elections Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor-General arrests a youth movement leader on charges of attempting a coup and taking money from Armenian security forces to do so.
Kocharian and Aliyev meet in Kazan on 27 August, but despite calling the meeting positive no further details are divulged. Speculation surrounds reports of new approaches being discussed by Oskanian and Mammadyarov, allegedly comprising a combined ‘package’ and ‘step-by-step’ approach to the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories and the future use of a referendum to determine Karabakh’s status.
November
Despite numerous commitments on the part of President Aliyev to an improved electoral process, parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan are widely criticized. YAP and pro-regime 'Independence' dominate the new Milli Meclis. While the ensuing protests appear to pose no immediate threat to the regime, Aliyev's longer term credibility sustains damage.
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